Is Ahmed Madobe a President for life

 

A summary analysis report; Jubbaland State 

Jubaland State has been singlehandedly ruled and remained under the illegitimate strong control of Ahmed Madobe since the liberation of Kismayo from Al-Shabaab in 2013 by the Ahmed Madobe’s former armed insurgents backed by Kenyan Defence Force (KDF) with an agenda to create a buffer zone and expand and secure Kenya’s interest in Somalia, especially in Jubbaland State. Ahmed Madobe who is fully backed up by KDF has orchestrated his own version of elections for three consecutive terms and contained everybody who disagreed with him. His last controversial and singlehandedly managed elections was highly ridiculed and opposed by both the general public, the FGS and the International community but with no avail to their condemnations of the elections outcome thus making the general approach to Somalia state building and democratization in question. Madobe’s illegal and unlawful term extension for one more additional year is well calculated groundwork for his fourth term to rule Jubbaland.

The FGS little or no influence on Jubbaland State and the International Community’s show of neutrality with Madobe being in leadership for such a long period of unaccounted time without the will of the general population has made the dreams of the people to see and have a democratic federal state government in place disappeared in a clouded thin air.

This extension move is aimed at establishing an authoritarian monarchy in the Jubbaland state in which Ahmed Madobe who has been ruling Jubaland for more than 12 years would virtually print and acquire a ticket to rule Jubbaland for life and as well keep his rival politicians at bay through elimination by murder or life threats and bribery or even offer of government position.

Both the FGS and the international community’s oversight role in the 2019 Jubbaland State elections were totally ignored by Ahmed Madobe which prompted the FGS along with the International Community to not recognize the outcome of his self-styled and self-suited election. The international community, which has heavily invested in Somalia state building efforts and the political process, has voiced its concern over the Jubbaland State election process, and further sustained pressure for the stakeholders to reach a viable solution, but the outcome of every attempt to restore equal participation of the election process and strengthen democracy, good governance and social cohesion always remained the same thus discouraging the International Community to further influence the matter and were given no chance but to recognize the election outcome and collaborate with Ahmed Madobe administration in the end.

 

Ahmed has never been in charge of the entire Jubbaland State as he only widens his grip and controls over the strategic port town of Kismayo and the god forsaken Afmadow  and its adjacent areas, until recently when he persuaded the FGS to handover Gedo region which seceded from Ahmed led administration in Jubbaland after he mishandled the 2019 Jubbaland State elections which was undertaken in a way that favoured Ahmed Madobe’s sole interest. In the process of taking over Gedo region through the FGS facilitations, Madobe manipulated Gedo regional and districts level administration who were dragged to legitimatise and accept Madobe’s administration by the FGS that he will not be hostile to them but instead will integrate them into Jubbalad State administration, being a man of deceits and deception; Madobe started firing every single member of Gedo regional and districts level administrations without giving notice. 

The food basket meaning the most productive and resourceful region of Jubbaland State which is the Middle Jubba region is out of Ahmed Madobe reach and remain under the full control of Al-shabaab militant group.

The founder and former Alshabaab violent extremist group Alshabab Ahmed Madobe has now got all the tools and federal political circumstances to rule Jubbaland for the third term in sequence by tailoring the upcoming Jubbaland State elections in his favours.

The FGS is not well positioned to deter and counter Madobe’s rigid approach and plan to flip and turn the cards into his own individual favour.

However there is nothing that forever can dim the lights which shines from within the population of Jubbaland State, rest assured that Ahmed Madobe will abandon politics and power as a broken man whose records of the past will haunt him for the rest of his life.