Gedo, The Region By The Political Spell. Analytics by Abdideck

 

GEDO REGION’S RECENT POLITICAL UNFOLDINGS SITUATIONAL REPORT (SITREP)

The FGS has taken over the control of Gedo region, Jubbaland State from Ahmed Madobe top allied Marehan clan politician, among these politicians is the First Deputy President of Jubbaland Mr Mohamud Sayid Aden and Jubbaland’s Minister for Security Mr. Abdirashid Janan.

Abdirashid Janan who was the most powerful Marehan clan politician in the region for the last ten years was accused of crimes against humanity and abuse of power by the former FGS’s Attorney General who printed an official warrant of arrest that did not work out; the current FGS (Banadir Court) dropped charges against Janan which in return he should help mobilize Jubbaland State MPs, while especially  focusing on MPs from Marehan and other allied clans to vote against Ahmed Madobe and support the FGS oversight role in Jubbaland State elections, but Abdirashid who is one of the key stakeholders of Ahmed Madobe’s self-styled Jubbaland administration abandoned the FGS political deal and maintained his loyalty for Ahmed Madobe which resulted to the controversial  state elections that is not recognized by  both the FGS and International Community.

The FGS represented by NISA has orchestrated a plan with Ethiopian intelligence to frame the arrest of Abdirashid Janan. Janan whose main residence is in Dolow Somalia has enjoyed Ethiopian generals’ collaboration for quite long time and did not suspect them after they invited him to Addis Ababa via Mogadishu airport. The FGS’s plan to arrest Abdirashid Janan at Mogadishu airport becomes very successful.

Soon after arresting Janan, the Ethiopian non-amisom troops who have always maintained a very long record of influence and collaborations with Gedo region administration on the cross border security have conveyed a meeting with the Daawo districts local authorities and Commanders of Jubbaland Darawiish forces from Balad-Hawa, Dolow and Luuq districts at a famous mango tree in Dolow district. The meetings which took four days have convinced these districts’ administration to open up to the FGS and support its constitutional mandate over Jubbaland State and as well accepted to meet with representatives from FGS at Nazaret in central Ethiopia where they met officials from NISA. These trip to Ethiopia took 7 days, both NISA and the Daawo districts official agreed on key issues of their discussion; some of their agreements include;-

• Cease and terminate all administrative affiliation with Ahmed Madobe led administration
• Opposing  the outcomes of Jubbaland election
• Release of Abdirashid Janan from custody
• Protection of these three districts’ officials in power from their opposition groups allied with the FGS, mainly Marehan local politicians that are stationed in Mogadishu by FGS
• Districts’ officials to facilitate the SNA Biometric registration of the undocumented Jubbaland Darawiish forces in these three districts that will commence as soon as possible
• Launch of development programs especially infrastructure in these districts led by the FGS

As these negotiations were underway between the Daawo districts’ officials and NISA in Ethiopia, 200 of Jubbaland Darawiish forces whose base was a camp in Balad-Hawa district called UK camp has called to have ceased relations with Jubbaland administration and relocated to Luuq district where they have established a FGS strong hold and appealed with the FGS to enable them join the SNA forces.

The districts’ officials come back from their trip to Ethiopia on 13th Nov 2020 when the loyalty of almost 60% of their self-styled Darawiish forces is lost to the FGS thus reducing their possibility to break away from the agreements they have reached with NISA officials outside the country. Everything was very calm and quiet despite the lack of any reliable public information on the issues surrounding the whole of the drama.

On the other hand; Gedo region Deputy Governor Mr. Mohamed Osman, very popular with his nickname Mwalimu who was a critic of Jubbaland administration two years before the 2019 Jubbaland contentious elections and stationed at Garbaharey district where he enjoyed the Gedo regional district’s public support for his position with the Jubbaland administration was holding meetings with the FGS’s top leaderships including the president where he was empowered and assigned to take the lead in Gedo region and enforce the FGS’s agenda to stabilize and fully take control over Gedo region. The Deputy Governor landed in Garbaharey after successful engagements with the FGS and two days later footed to Luuq district which is 80km to Garbaharey.  Mwalmu is a registered SNA and a hardened Ak47 fighter who has unusual records of sneaking with five soldiers from Garbaharey to ambush Alshabaab men at the tips of communities in the suburb villages of Garbaharey in the past years before he was nominated as the Deputy Governor of Gedo region by Jubbaland administration in the year 2016.

Two days after his arrival in Luuq district where he was highly welcomed by the local communities and the local Darawiish forces who relocated from Balad-Hawa district to support the FGS agenda, a FGS team consisting of four groups from NISA, Defense Ministry, Police headquarter and Finance Ministry have landed in Dolow district airport to start the Biometric registrations of the all the Darawiish forces present in these three districts into the different arms of Somali National Forces, i.e. military, police and NISA starting with Balad-Hawa and Dolow districts which is followed by Luuq, there was no or few females registered during these registration exercise.

Dolow district administration has initially insisted to recognize the role of Mwalimu in the newly introduced FGS led operations in the region by rejecting Mwalimu to visit and be welcomed in Dolow. Not exactly knowing how and who resolved the misunderstanding between Mwalimu and Dolow administration within a very short time. The entire Gedo region districts’ administrations including the Deputy Governor travelled to Mogadishu from Luuq airport on early December and stayed at Royal Palace Hotel for one full month, during their stay in Mogadishu, the entire Gedo administration met with the President at two different times during the night and it is unclear if there were separate meetings held between Mwalimu or other Gedo region officials and the President. Some of the talks of the President with the Gedo administration as I quoted from members of the administration is “anyone who don’t fully collaborate with Mwalimu is not part of us” while their side, the Gedo administration, especially Dolow district officials requested the President to free Abdirashid Janan from custody.

Myself I travelled from Dolow to Mogadishu one week behind them and I visited the Gedo administration at Royal Hotel in Mogadishu several times, the hotel looked as if it is only reserved for these Gedo region administrations whose their number exceeds 50, they occupied all rooms, coffee and hotel restaurant arena and I could not see anyone outside the administration accommodating in the hotel which its diversity of different hotel guest especially Diaspora and politician was something I have known with the hotel very well.

I remember two days before they leave Mogadishu back to the region, they have received some handouts from the government, each district administration recieved $5,000 to facilitate their shopping needs in Mogadishu before their travel back to Gedo region.

On 10th January 2020, the Gedo region administration left Mogadishu and travelled back to Gedo region starting with Baardhere district, followed by Garbaharey, Luuq, Dolow and Balad-Hawa districts, all the districts competitively welcomed them with big crowds and waving FGS flags. Every district they visited, they held public gathering where they speak with the people about the unrecognized election outcomes of Jubbaland and many things including the injustices, social and clan exclusion, corruption and extrajudicial killings subjected to the people of Jubbaland, especially Gedo region which they said did not get a single touchable development project from Jubbaland since its inception. On the other hand, they inform the public that the FGS will launch different development projects including the construction of a road from Luuq to Balad-Hawa via Dolow, and that the formation of an inclusive, democratic and locally driven jubbaland state administration to commence soon. These narratives were welcomed by the majority of the people in Gedo region.

As the Gedo administration’s concludes their tour in five major districts of the region, Abdirashid Janan escaped from custody and reached Kismayo by boat after two days of hiding in Mogadishu, soon he is airlifted to Mandera-Kenya via Nairobi. Abdirashid crossed to Balad-Hawa district and met his loyal Darwiish soldiers who were already documented by the FGS during his time in custody. Balad-Hawa District Commissioner and other district officials hide themselves in the bushes outside the Balad-Hawa town along the Dawa River for fear of their lives from Abdirashid Janan arrival in Balad-Hawa.

Janan’s escape from custody and arrival at Balad-Hawa district triggered the militarization of the region which prompted the FGS to start deploying special Somali forces (Gorgor) to Luuq district where they transitioned for two days before leaving to Balad-Hawa district that borders Mandera-Kenya. Abdirashid and his loyal soldiers mainly from his sub-clan relocated to PP1 in Mandera-Kenya with a very close proximity with Balad-Hawa district. The FGS also deployed other SNA troops from Garbaharey and Baardheere districts to Balad-Hawa district.  This militarization in Balad-Hawa district frustrated the communities living in the Balad-Hawa town with fear of conflicts that may erupt anytime between Abdirashiid’s loyal forces and FGS forces. Around 1,000 families were displaced only for fear of conflicts between these two warring parties. Janan’s soldiers used to cross into Balad-Hawa district and freely walk around the town until one day when a soldier allied to Abdirashid accidently fires to a group of SNA forces led by a former Balad-Hawa district security chief at an open space opposite to the police station, in respond; the SNA forces fired back and both sides exchanged gunfire that lasted for a short period which caused the death of a young solder allied to Abdirashiid Janan. After the incident, Abdirashid Janan’s forces were not allowed again to cross into Balad-Hawa town while they also didn’t do it.

Abdirashid received reinforcements from Ahmed Madobe who send him 200 soldiers and machine guns from Dobley district through inside Kenya territory to his base in PP1 in Mandera-Kenya, rumors escalate that its Kenya Defense Forces that was facilitating the movements of Jubbaland forces within Kenya territory and as well backing up Abdirashid Janan who is accused by UN-Monitoring Group and Amnesty International for violation of human rights and crimes against humanity. Videos recorded by locals in Mandera-Kenya showed a very tired and dusty Jubbaland forces from Dhobley entering Mandera-Kenya and directly going to Abdirashid’s military base.

By late February, Abdirashid Janan waged a full scale war against the FGS forces in Balad-Hawa district; a very heavy gun fight with artillery shelling has occurred which lasted for hours, Janan was badly defeated as the FGS forces pursued them inside Mandera-Kenya. The FGS has lost two soldiers with over 14 injured casualties including civilians; a number of homes were destroyed by the artillery shelling, there is no clear information about the casualties from Janan’s side. Later in the evening, a plane landed in Dolow district to airlift the injured SNA soldiers and civilian casualties to Mogadishu for cure. UNOCHA-Somalia reported that the conflict has displaced 6000 people from their homes. The FGS has brought in five Toyota land cruisers (Abdi-Bile) and machine guns to boost the capability of the FGS forces in Balad-Hawa while the district commissioners in Balad-Hawa, Dolow and Luuq donated machine guns carrying vehicles including others car bought from locals thus making the SNA forces present in Balad-Hawa district armed to tooth and nails. The Deputy Interior Minister of Jubbaland State who was allied with Janan handed himself over to the SNA forces in Balad-Hawa districts, he was brought to Dolow and flew the next day to Mogadishu, over 50 soldiers also abandoned Abdirashid in groups, pairs and in individuals to join the SNA forces. Abdirashid relocated from his earlier base in Mandera-Kenya that was very close to Balad-Hawa district to downtown Mandera in a place called Baanyoley which its name has become very popular.  Minister Abdirashid also known as a fugitive by many international and local news media outlets did not waged war against the FGS forces again a part from a mere fire exchanges that was caused by SNA suspicion on two military cars patrolling the initial base of Abdirashid Janan.

All the district administrations in Gedo region were fired by late March 2020 and replaced with new administrations that were appointed by the Deputy Governor. The replaced district officials were suspected of secretly collaborating and sharing information with their former boss Abdirashid Janan.

On 22nd May 2020, The Deputy Governor (Maolimu) himself was appointed a full Governor by the defected and controversial Deputy Interior Minister of Jubbaland who also appointed his two Deputy Governors and the Regional Treasurer and fully endorsed by Farmajo led federal government of Somalia.